Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06
Conference Standings
| T1 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 44.7% | ||
| T1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 55.9% | ||
| T1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 23.5% | ||
| T1 | 2-0 | 3-2 | 14.3% | ||
| T1 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 2.7% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 24.0% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 23.8% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 7.4% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 1.3% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 1.3% | ||
| T6 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 0.8% | ||
| T12 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0.3% | ||
| T12 | 1-2 | 2-4 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 1-5 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 3-3 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 2-4 | - | ||
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely
CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact on
CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 55.9%
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 55.8% (-0.1%) | 55.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.9% (+0.1%) | 55.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 55.8% (-0.0%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 55.5% (-0.4%) | 56.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 67.7% (+11.8%) | 35.3% (-20.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 69.3% • Scenario: 1.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 67.7% • Scenario: 63.4%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 97.8% | 58.7% | 4.8% | - | 55.9% | |
| 100% | 96.6% | 54.5% | 5.3% | <0.1% | 44.7% | |
| - | 96.6% | 45.0% | 3.1% | <0.1% | 24.0% | |
| - | 95.2% | 53.0% | 5.3% | - | 23.8% | |
| 100% | 90.4% | 38.4% | 1.3% | - | 23.5% | |
| 100% | 98.5% | 55.6% | 4.2% | - | 14.3% | |
| - | 97.4% | 44.5% | 2.1% | <0.1% | 7.4% | |
| 100% | 94.3% | 44.2% | 1.9% | - | 2.7% | |
| - | 97.6% | 54.4% | 4.9% | - | 1.3% | |
| - | 100% | 66.7% | 9.2% | - | 1.3% | |
| - | 90.3% | 46.6% | 4.3% | <0.1% | 0.8% | |
| - | - | 45.4% | 2.1% | - | 0.3% | |
| - | - | 53.3% | 2.5% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | - | 3.3% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | - | 5.3% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | - | 1.2% | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-06
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 26.9% | 32.8% | 21.3% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 7.0 | |
| 4.2% | 20.8% | 34.8% | 27.1% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 6.7 | |
| 2.2% | 12.0% | 26.0% | 30.5% | 20.2% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | - | - | 6.2 | |
| - | 9.8% | 29.9% | 34.1% | 19.1% | 6.0% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.2 | |
| - | 8.6% | 26.1% | 33.0% | 22.0% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 6.0 | |
| 0.4% | 4.2% | 15.4% | 28.5% | 29.6% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 0.4% | - | - | 5.5 | |
| - | 2.0% | 11.1% | 25.3% | 30.0% | 21.0% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | - | 5.1 | |
| <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 14.7% | 28.2% | 30.9% | 17.4% | 4.0% | - | - | 4.5 | |
| - | <0.1% | 1.5% | 8.3% | 22.1% | 31.8% | 24.6% | 10.1% | 1.6% | - | 3.9 | |
| - | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.0% | 18.2% | 29.7% | 28.1% | 14.0% | 2.8% | - | 3.7 | |
| - | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 17.2% | 29.2% | 28.5% | 15.1% | 3.3% | - | 3.6 | |
| - | - | 0.5% | 4.1% | 15.4% | 29.5% | 30.8% | 16.3% | 3.4% | - | 3.5 | |
| - | - | - | 0.5% | 5.2% | 19.5% | 34.2% | 28.0% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 2.8 | |
| - | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 12.6% | 31.0% | 36.9% | 16.4% | - | 2.5 | |
| - | - | - | 0.4% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 29.1% | 30.5% | 17.1% | 3.9% | 2.5 | |
| - | - | - | 0.3% | 3.1% | 13.3% | 28.9% | 32.4% | 18.1% | 4.0% | 2.4 |
Data from 2024-10-06