ColoradoBuffaloes

4-1 T1st (2-0) in B12

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsNorth Dakota StateNDSU	W31-26
2	9/07	@NebraskaNEB	L10-28
3	9/14	@Colorado StateCSU	W28-9
4	9/21	vsBaylorBAY	W38-31
5	9/28	@UCFUCF	W48-21
7	10/12	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:22%
8	10/19	@ArizonaARIZ	Win prob:19%
9	10/26	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:51%
11	11/09	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:22%
12	11/16	vsUtahUTAH	Win prob:40%
13	11/23	vsKansasKU(N)	Win prob:37%
14	11/29	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:56%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.6%	94.3%
7-2	4.2%	44.2%
6-3	14.7%	1.9%
5-4	28.2%	0%
4-5	30.9%	0%
3-6	17.4%	0%
2-7	4.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

40.2%

23.8%

12.7%

11.9%

11.5%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
CincinnatiCIN@UCFUCF	2.8% (+0.1%)	2.7% (-0.1%)
Kansas StateKSU@ColoradoCOLO	1.1% (-1.6%)	8.4% (+5.6%)
UtahUTAH@Arizona StateASU	2.7% (-0.0%)	2.8% (+0.0%)
ArizonaARIZ@BYUBYU	2.9% (+0.2%)	2.5% (-0.2%)
Iowa StateISU@West VirginiaWVU	2.6% (-0.1%)	2.9% (+0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

Colorado

Arizona State

Arizona

West Virginia

CCG: 12.2% • Scenario: 0.8%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Colorado

CCG: 8.4% • Scenario: 22.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

94.2%

0.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.4%

<0.1%

96.6%

0.1%

91.7%

0.1%

91.2%

<0.1%

90.3%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

44.2%

4.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

80.4%

<0.1%

75.4%

<0.1%

73.6%

<0.1%

69.8%

<0.1%

65.0%

0.1%

61.4%

0.1%

58.0%

0.3%

56.1%

0.2%

54.0%

0.1%

52.2%

0.2%

46.4%

0.3%

46.2%

0.1%

45.5%

0.1%

40.2%

0.2%

40.2%

0.2%

40.2%

0.2%

38.2%

0.1%

36.5%

0.6%

35.5%

0.6%

24.2%

0.5%

Any 3 losses

1.9%

14.7%

13.2%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

6.5%

0.1%

5.9%

0.1%

5.7%

0.2%

4.8%

0.2%

4.7%

0.2%

4.6%

0.2%

4.5%

0.1%

4.3%

0.4%

4.1%

0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.4%

2.8%

0.2%

2.2%

0.2%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.3%

2.0%

0.5%

1.9%

0.9%

1.9%

0.6%

1.8%

0.9%

1.7%

0.3%

1.6%

0.9%

1.6%

0.3%

1.5%

0.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1.4%

0.4%

1.3%

0.1%

1.2%

0.8%

1.0%

0.4%

0.9%

0.4%

0.8%

0.6%

2.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.5%

0.6%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com