Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L34-35 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L42-66 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L19-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.5% | 45.4% |
| 6-3 | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 16.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCF
Colorado
Utah
Arizona
West VirginiaCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 1.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 22.1%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
45.4%
0.5%Any 1 loss
2.1%
4.0%
3.2%
0.7%
2.9%
0.5%2.8%
1.1%
2.5%
0.3%
1.4%
0.7%0.6%
0.9%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06