Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W22-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L10-23 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:56% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 2.0% | 97.4% |
| 7-2 | 11.1% | 44.5% |
| 6-3 | 25.3% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 21.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3% (-0.1%) | 7.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.2%) | 8.2% (+0.8%) | |
| 11.5% (+4.1%) | 2.3% (-5.1%) | |
| 7.1% (-0.4%) | 7.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 7.4% (+0.0%) | 7.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCF
ColoradoUtah
BYU
West VirginiaCCG: 14.2% • Scenario: 1.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 11.5% • Scenario: 55.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.4%
2.0%Any 1 loss
44.5%
11.1%60.0%
1.5%
59.2%
0.8%
58.9%
0.8%
52.9%
1.6%50.1%
1.4%40.0%
1.4%
27.1%
3.5%Any 2 losses
2.1%
25.3%4.5%
0.6%4.3%
0.6%4.0%
0.7%3.9%
0.6%3.5%
0.7%3.4%
0.3%3.3%
1.3%3.2%
0.6%2.6%
1.1%2.6%
0.6%2.4%
1.0%2.1%
0.9%2.1%
1.5%2.1%
1.1%2.0%
1.2%2.0%
0.6%1.8%
1.5%1.7%
2.7%1.5%
2.3%1.0%
2.9%0.9%
2.6%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06