Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-48 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L13-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:15% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 1.0% | 66.7% |
| 6-3 | 5.7% | 9.2% |
| 5-4 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-1.0%) | 2.0% (+0.8%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCF
Colorado
Arizona State
Arizona
West VirginiaCCG: 3.2% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 55.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
66.8%
1.0%80.4%
<0.1%
79.0%
<0.1%
77.3%
<0.1%
76.5%
<0.1%69.6%
0.2%66.4%
0.1%
56.5%
0.4%Any 2 losses
9.2%
5.7%19.1%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.6%
0.2%14.2%
0.2%13.1%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.2%
0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.9%
0.3%10.6%
0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.8%
0.5%9.4%
0.5%8.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
0.5%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
0.7%6.3%
0.9%5.0%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06