Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:92% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 17.1% | 92.4% |
| 6-2 | 38.9% | 26.0% |
| 5-3 | 31.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 11.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.1% (+0.3%) | 25.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.1% (-1.7%) | 33.8% (+7.9%) | |
| 25.9% (+0.0%) | 25.2% (-0.7%) | |
| 6.3% (-19.5%) | 27.7% (+1.8%) | |
| 27.9% (+2.1%) | 25.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.6% (-1.3%) | 26.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.7% (+0.9%) | 25.9% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSU
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Mississippi StateCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaAlabamaCCG: 36.0% • Scenario: 16.4%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.4%
15.3%Any 1 loss
29.1%
36.8%
92.1%
1.7%
41.7%
0.8%
37.0%
1.8%
34.3%
1.4%33.4%
7.3%
25.5%
14.3%16.5%
9.5%Any 2 losses
25.4%
3.8%41.0%
0.2%34.4%
0.2%33.0%
0.8%31.9%
<0.1%23.6%
1.6%18.1%
1.0%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06