DukeBlue Devils

5-1 T9th (1-1) in ACC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsElonELON	W26-3
2	9/06	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	W26-20
3	9/14	vsUConnCONN	W26-21
4	9/21	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W45-17
5	9/28	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	W21-20
6	10/05	@Georgia TechGT	L14-24
8	10/18	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:67%
9	10/26	vsSMUSMU	Win prob:34%
10	11/02	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:17%
11	11/09	@NC StateNCSU	Win prob:63%
13	11/23	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:51%
14	11/30	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:76%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.9%	97.8%
6-2	8.8%	5.7%
5-3	25.8%	0%
4-4	34.5%	0%
3-5	22.3%	0%
2-6	6.8%	0%
1-7	0.8%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.3%

15.7%

13.6%

5.0%

1.4%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MiamiMIA@LouisvilleLOU	1.4% (+0.0%)	1.4% (-0.0%)
Notre DameND@Georgia TechGT	1.4% (-0.0%)	1.5% (+0.1%)
Wake ForestWAKE@UConnCONN	1.4% (+0.0%)	1.4% (-0.0%)
SMUSMU@StanfordSTAN	1.4% (-0.0%)	2.0% (+0.6%)
Boston CollegeBC@Virginia TechVT	1.4% (-0.0%)	1.4% (+0.0%)
NC StateNCSU@CaliforniaCAL	1.6% (+0.1%)	1.3% (-0.1%)
Florida StateFSU@DukeDUKE	0.2% (-1.2%)	2.0% (+0.6%)
VirginiaUVA@ClemsonCLEM	2.1% (+0.8%)	1.4% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Miami

Georgia Tech

UConn

Stanford

Boston College

Virginia

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Duke

CCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 66.6%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

97.8%

0.9%

Any 1 loss

5.7%

8.8%

17.7%

0.6%

14.4%

0.3%

14.1%

0.5%

8.4%

0.9%

3.5%

4.8%

2.3%

1.8%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com