Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W17-15 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.0% | 80.4% |
| 6-2 | 12.1% | 6.5% |
| 5-3 | 31.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 35.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 16.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% (-0.4%) | 3.1% (+0.6%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.0%) | 2.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.0%) | 2.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.5% (-0.0%) | 3.1% (+0.6%) | |
| 2.5% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.1%) | 2.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (+1.2%) | 2.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.1% • Scenario: 39.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
80.5%
2.0%98.2%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.5%
0.1%81.2%
0.7%77.3%
0.4%75.8%
0.6%Any 2 losses
6.5%
12.0%30.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%16.9%
0.6%15.0%
0.2%14.4%
0.3%14.2%
0.3%13.1%
0.4%12.3%
0.3%12.0%
0.6%10.5%
0.2%9.1%
0.3%4.2%
2.6%3.6%
3.6%3.5%
2.6%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13