SMUMustangs

5-1 T1st (2-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

61.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	W66-42
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	W42-16
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	W34-27
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:94%
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:66%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:85%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:89%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:84%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:83%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	32.6%	95.2%
7-1	42.1%	68.3%
6-2	20.0%	9.2%
5-3	4.8%	0.0%
4-4	0.6%	0%
3-5	0.0%	0%
2-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

53.4%

36.6%

7.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MiamiMIA@LouisvilleLOU	53.6% (-7.9%)	73.6% (+12.0%)
Notre DameND@Georgia TechGT	61.6% (+0.0%)	61.6% (+0.0%)
Wake ForestWAKE@UConnCONN	61.5% (-0.0%)	61.6% (+0.0%)
SMUSMU@StanfordSTAN	63.6% (+2.1%)	28.6% (-32.9%)
Boston CollegeBC@Virginia TechVT	65.1% (+3.6%)	60.7% (-0.8%)
NC StateNCSU@CaliforniaCAL	60.2% (-1.4%)	62.1% (+0.6%)
Florida StateFSU@DukeDUKE	61.9% (+0.3%)	61.4% (-0.2%)
VirginiaUVA@ClemsonCLEM	75.4% (+13.8%)	60.8% (-0.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisville

Georgia Tech

Stanford

Florida State

Virginia

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisville

SMU

CCG: 75.8% • Scenario: 37.4%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

95.2%

32.6%

Any 1 loss

68.3%

42.0%

77.1%

3.8%

71.0%

6.9%

69.5%

2.0%

68.0%

6.2%

67.0%

17.3%

63.1%

5.8%

Any 2 losses

9.2%

20.0%

17.6%

0.2%

17.4%

0.7%

14.6%

0.4%

13.4%

0.8%

12.5%

1.3%

12.4%

0.4%

10.3%

0.7%

9.6%

0.4%

8.9%

1.1%

8.7%

3.3%

8.7%

2.0%

8.3%

3.6%

8.2%

1.1%

7.8%

1.1%

5.6%

2.9%

Any 3 losses

0.9%

0.2%

1.3%

<0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com