Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-31 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L27-34 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W24-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 4.7% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 27.4% | 15.0% |
| 5-3 | 43.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 21.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (-7.2%) | 19.8% (+10.9%) | |
| 8.8% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 8.8% (-0.0%) | 8.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.5% (-0.3%) | 14.3% (+5.5%) | |
| 9.1% (+0.3%) | 8.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.7% (-0.1%) | 8.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.8% (-0.0%) | 8.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.0% (+5.2%) | 8.5% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia Tech
Stanford
Boston College
NC State
VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 19.8% • Scenario: 39.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.4%Any 1 loss
27.7%
15.8%
99.9%
2.3%28.8%
0.8%
27.6%
0.6%24.6%
0.2%
13.8%
3.5%
13.3%
8.4%Any 2 losses
14.6%
14.1%32.5%
0.8%28.9%
0.2%23.9%
0.6%13.3%
3.6%12.9%
8.6%1.2%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13