CincinnatiBearcats

4-2 T4th (2-1) in B12

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsTowsonTOW	W38-20
2	9/07	vsPittsburghPITT	L27-28
3	9/14	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W27-16
4	9/21	vsHoustonHOU	W34-0
5	9/28	@Texas TechTTU	L41-44
7	10/12	@UCFUCF	W19-13
8	10/19	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:59%
9	10/26	@ColoradoCOLO	Win prob:49%
11	11/09	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:49%
12	11/16	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:16%
13	11/23	@Kansas StateKSU	Win prob:18%
14	11/30	vsTCUTCU	Win prob:62%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.2%	97.5%
7-2	3.3%	45.0%
6-3	15.5%	3.6%
5-4	31.7%	0%
4-5	31.5%	0%
3-6	15.0%	0%
2-7	2.8%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

42.8%

24.8%

21.6%

9.5%

1.4%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Oklahoma StateOKST@BYUBYU	2.9% (+0.7%)	2.1% (-0.2%)
TCUTCU@UtahUTAH	2.4% (+0.1%)	2.2% (-0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@ArizonaARIZ	2.5% (+0.2%)	2.2% (-0.1%)
Arizona StateASU@CincinnatiCIN	0.4% (-1.8%)	3.6% (+1.3%)
Kansas StateKSU@West VirginiaWVU	2.2% (-0.1%)	2.4% (+0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Texas TechTTU	2.9% (+0.7%)	2.1% (-0.2%)
UCFUCF@Iowa StateISU	3.1% (+0.8%)	2.1% (-0.1%)
HoustonHOU@KansasKU	2.3% (+0.1%)	2.3% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Oklahoma State

Utah

Colorado

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Baylor

UCF

Kansas

CCG: 17.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 59.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

97.5%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

44.9%

3.3%

67.1%

0.2%

62.5%

0.2%

54.2%

0.1%

51.9%

0.3%

43.9%

1.1%

37.6%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

3.6%

15.5%

8.8%

0.2%

8.7%

0.1%

6.3%

0.3%

6.1%

0.2%

5.3%

0.8%

5.1%

1.2%

5.0%

1.4%

4.8%

0.7%

4.6%

0.1%

4.1%

0.2%

3.3%

0.9%

3.2%

1.2%

3.1%

1.4%

2.7%

0.8%

2.4%

6.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com