Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W26-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W26-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W26-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W45-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W21-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W23-16 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:17% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.2% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 11.0% | 5.0% |
| 5-3 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 36.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-1.6%) | 5.2% (+3.4%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (+1.1%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Duke
Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
North Carolina
California
Florida State
Boston CollegeCCG: 20.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 5.2% • Scenario: 32.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.7%
1.2%Any 1 loss
5.0%
11.0%16.3%
0.4%
14.3%
0.8%
8.3%
1.3%
3.3%
2.5%
3.2%
6.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20