Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-31 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L27-34 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W24-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L45-52 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:78% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 11.9% | 9.8% |
| 5-3 | 52.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (-0.4%) | 1.9% (+0.7%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.3%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+1.1%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 25.2%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
9.7%
7.3%9.8%
4.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20