Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W17-15 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:13% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:21% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.0% | 68.0% |
| 6-2 | 12.4% | 2.6% |
| 5-3 | 32.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-1.5%) | 2.5% (+0.7%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.1%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.0%) | 1.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (+1.1%) | 1.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 16.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 69.6%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
68.0%
2.0%95.9%
<0.1%93.6%
0.1%90.7%
<0.1%70.8%
0.4%68.4%
0.7%57.5%
0.6%Any 2 losses
2.6%
12.4%19.4%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%6.7%
0.4%5.4%
0.3%5.0%
0.6%4.7%
0.3%4.1%
0.4%4.1%
0.5%3.8%
0.3%1.9%
2.9%1.6%
2.4%1.3%
4.0%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20