SMUMustangs

6-1 T1st (3-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-10-20 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

53.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	W66-42
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	W42-16
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	W34-27
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	W40-10
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:68%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:87%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:92%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:85%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:85%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	39.1%	86.4%
7-1	41.7%	46.2%
6-2	16.1%	3.2%
5-3	2.8%	0%
4-4	0.3%	0%
3-5	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

58.7%

36.9%

2.9%

0.8%

0.8%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SMUSMU@DukeDUKE	66.8% (+13.2%)	26.2% (-27.4%)
SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT	53.5% (-0.1%)	53.6% (+0.0%)
Georgia TechGT@Virginia TechVT	56.5% (+2.9%)	52.3% (-1.2%)
Wake ForestWAKE@StanfordSTAN	52.4% (-1.2%)	55.6% (+2.1%)
North CarolinaUNC@VirginiaUVA	53.5% (-0.1%)	53.7% (+0.1%)
Oregon StateORST@CaliforniaCAL	54.0% (+0.4%)	53.2% (-0.4%)
Florida StateFSU@MiamiMIA	73.3% (+19.7%)	51.0% (-2.6%)
LouisvilleLOU@Boston CollegeBC	53.0% (-0.5%)	55.5% (+1.9%)

Best Winner Combination for

SMU

Syracuse

Georgia Tech

Stanford

California

Florida State

Boston College

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

SMU

CCG: 66.8% • Scenario: 67.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

86.4%

39.1%

Any 1 loss

46.2%

41.7%

55.4%

3.4%

50.2%

6.8%

47.8%

6.8%

44.0%

18.9%

41.7%

6.0%

Any 2 losses

3.2%

16.1%

9.4%

0.6%

7.3%

0.6%

6.9%

1.2%

6.3%

0.5%

4.6%

1.0%

3.0%

1.1%

2.9%

3.3%

2.5%

1.6%

1.8%

3.2%

1.0%

2.9%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com