Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-20

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE4-07-080.7%
T1IndianaIU4-07-017.4%
T1Penn StPSU3-06-038.6%
T4WisconsinWIS3-15-24.5%
T4IllinoisILL3-16-11.5%
6Ohio StOSU2-15-156.0%
T7MichiganMICH2-24-31.1%
T7WashingtonWASH2-24-30.2%
T7IowaIOWA2-24-3<0.1%
T7MinnesotaMINN2-24-3<0.1%
T7Michigan StMSU2-24-3<0.1%
T7NebraskaNEB2-25-2-
T13MarylandMD1-34-3-
T13NorthwesternNU1-33-4-
T13RutgersRUTG1-34-3-
T16UCLAUCLA1-42-5-
T16USCUSC1-43-4-
18PurduePUR0-41-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

142.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
226.5%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
39.6%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
47.4%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
54.1%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
63.1%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
71.7%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WISWisconsin
81.5%
OregonORE
vs
WISWisconsin
90.7%
Penn StPSU
vs
WISWisconsin
100.5%
IllinoisILL
vs
PSUPenn St
110.5%
IndianaIU
vs
WISWisconsin
120.5%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
130.4%
IllinoisILL
vs
OSUOhio St
140.4%
MichiganMICH
vs
PSUPenn St
150.3%
IllinoisILL
vs
OREOregon

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 80.7%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
WashingtonWASH@IndianaIU
85.2%
(+4.5%)		78.7%
(-2.0%)
Michigan StMSU@MichiganMICH
81.5%
(+0.8%)		80.6%
(-0.1%)
NebraskaNEB@Ohio StOSU
85.4%
(+4.7%)		80.6%
(-0.1%)
Penn StPSU@WisconsinWIS
79.9%
(-0.8%)		82.1%
(+1.4%)
MarylandMD@MinnesotaMINN
81.8%
(+1.1%)		79.8%
(-0.9%)
IllinoisILL@OregonORE
47.1%
(-33.6%)		83.4%
(+2.7%)
NorthwesternNU@IowaIOWA
81.1%
(+0.4%)		80.5%
(-0.2%)
RutgersRUTG@USCUSC
81.9%
(+1.2%)		80.6%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

Michigan StMichigan StateNebraskaNebraskaPenn StPenn StateRutgersRutgers

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregon

CCG: 83.4% • Scenario: 92.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
OregonORE100%90.5%28.6%0.1%80.7%
Ohio StOSU-99.9%22.8%<0.1%56.0%
Penn StPSU99.9%61.1%5.4%-38.6%
IndianaIU95.9%40.7%1.4%-17.4%
WisconsinWIS-79.2%5.6%-4.5%
IllinoisILL-62.1%2.6%-1.5%
MichiganMICH--59.6%0.2%1.1%
WashingtonWASH--54.6%-0.2%
IowaIOWA--1.1%-<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN--11.0%-<0.1%
Michigan StMSU--5.1%<0.1%<0.1%
MarylandMD-----
NebraskaNEB-----
NorthwesternNU-----
PurduePUR-----
RutgersRUTG-----
UCLAUCLA-----
USCUSC-----

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(4-0)37.2%42.7%17.1%2.8%0.2%0.0%----8.1
Penn StPSU(3-0)12.5%39.8%34.3%11.6%1.8%0.1%0.0%---7.5
Ohio StOSU(2-1)-46.7%41.1%11.0%1.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.3
IndianaIU(4-0)3.9%32.2%43.2%18.1%2.5%<0.1%----7.2
WisconsinWIS(3-1)-4.1%21.9%39.1%27.2%7.1%0.6%---5.9
IllinoisILL(3-1)-1.5%21.0%39.3%28.2%9.0%1.0%---5.7
IowaIOWA(2-2)--8.5%28.9%35.9%20.8%5.4%0.5%--5.1
MichiganMICH(2-2)--1.8%16.5%41.4%33.6%6.4%0.3%--4.7
USCUSC(1-4)----31.3%47.7%18.4%2.5%0.1%-4.1
WashingtonWASH(2-2)--0.4%4.7%22.8%41.7%26.9%3.5%--4.0
Michigan StMSU(2-2)--0.2%3.4%21.1%45.2%26.7%3.4%--4.0
MinnesotaMINN(2-2)--0.3%3.6%18.5%37.2%31.2%9.3%--3.8
NebraskaNEB(2-2)--0.0%0.4%4.6%23.9%47.5%23.6%--3.1
MarylandMD(1-3)---<0.1%2.3%18.8%40.9%31.1%6.8%-2.8
NorthwesternNU(1-3)---<0.1%1.8%15.4%41.0%36.0%5.8%-2.7
RutgersRUTG(1-3)---0.1%2.5%13.7%32.6%36.1%14.9%-2.5
UCLAUCLA(1-4)----0.4%5.3%24.3%43.4%26.6%-2.1
PurduePUR(0-4)----0.0%0.0%0.2%4.1%29.4%66.3%0.4

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com