Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-5 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L18-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W27-17 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L16-40 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:20% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.4% | 54.6% |
| 6-3 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 22.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 41.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (+0.4%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Washington
Michigan
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Maryland
Oregon
RutgersCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 30.8%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
54.6%
0.4%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20