Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L7-35 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W40-16 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-32 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 8.5% | 1.1% |
| 6-3 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 35.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.3%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Washington
Michigan State
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Minnesota
OregonIowaCCG: 11.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinIowaCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 26.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.1%
8.5%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20