Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-6 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W42-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W23-3 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 4.1% | 79.2% |
| 7-2 | 21.9% | 5.6% |
| 6-3 | 39.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5% (+1.1%) | 4.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.0%) | 4.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.9% (+6.5%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-4.1%) | 11.2% (+6.8%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.2%) | 4.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.0% (+1.5%) | 4.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.0%) | 4.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (+0.1%) | 4.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Washington
Michigan State
NebraskaWisconsin
IllinoisCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinCCG: 11.2% • Scenario: 37.8%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
79.2%
4.1%Any 1 loss
5.6%
21.9%
14.0%
0.8%13.6%
0.9%
12.8%
2.7%
3.8%
10.9%
3.5%
6.4%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20