Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
80.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W24-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W37-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W32-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-0 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 37.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 42.7% | 90.5% |
| 7-2 | 17.1% | 28.6% |
| 6-3 | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 85.2% (+4.5%) | 78.7% (-2.0%) | |
| 81.5% (+0.8%) | 80.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.4% (+4.7%) | 80.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 79.9% (-0.8%) | 82.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 81.8% (+1.1%) | 79.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 47.1% (-33.6%) | 83.4% (+2.7%) | |
| 81.1% (+0.4%) | 80.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 81.9% (+1.2%) | 80.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Michigan State
Nebraska
Penn State
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonCCG: 83.4% • Scenario: 92.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
37.2%Any 1 loss
90.5%
42.7%
93.9%
2.2%
93.4%
5.3%
91.4%
13.3%
90.6%
3.0%
88.6%
18.9%Any 2 losses
28.6%
17.1%38.3%
1.2%38.3%
2.8%37.8%
0.4%35.3%
0.2%30.7%
0.8%29.9%
0.4%26.5%
2.0%25.8%
1.5%24.7%
6.8%19.7%
1.1%Any 3 losses
0.8%
0.4%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20