Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W45-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W30-9 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W50-49 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W21-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:7% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.5% | 62.1% |
| 7-2 | 21.0% | 2.6% |
| 6-3 | 39.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 9.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.5% (+1.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.5% (+14.1%) | 0.3% (-1.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nebraska
MarylandIllinois
Northwestern
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 15.5% • Scenario: 7.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
62.1%
1.5%Any 1 loss
2.6%
21.0%10.7%
0.8%
9.9%
0.7%7.5%
1.1%
4.7%
0.5%
1.6%
18.0%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20