Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W77-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-28 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W41-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W56-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:83% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 3.9% | 95.9% |
| 8-1 | 32.2% | 40.7% |
| 7-2 | 43.2% | 1.4% |
| 6-3 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (-12.3%) | 22.9% (+5.5%) | |
| 17.6% (+0.2%) | 17.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.1% (+8.7%) | 17.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 14.9% (-2.5%) | 21.5% (+4.1%) | |
| 17.6% (+0.1%) | 17.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.4% (+4.0%) | 17.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 17.2% (-0.2%) | 17.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.5% (+0.1%) | 17.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Indiana
Michigan State
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Illinois
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaCCG: 22.9% • Scenario: 69.2%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.9%
3.9%Any 1 loss
40.7%
32.2%
89.9%
<0.1%81.7%
0.7%
80.6%
3.2%
77.4%
1.7%
32.2%
26.5%Any 2 losses
1.4%
43.2%23.8%
<0.1%13.1%
0.7%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.2%
1.4%7.4%
0.3%1.8%
0.7%1.1%
12.0%0.9%
5.4%0.6%
22.6%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20