Big XII

Big XII Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-20

Big XIIConference Standings

T1BYUBYU4-07-069.9%
T1Iowa StISU4-07-066.5%
T3Kansas StKSU3-16-145.6%
T3ColoradoCOLO3-15-26.8%
T3Texas TechTTU3-15-25.3%
T3CincinnatiCIN3-15-23.8%
T7TCUTCU2-24-30.8%
T7West VirginiaWVU2-23-40.6%
T7Arizona StASU2-25-20.5%
T10KansasKU1-32-50.1%
T10BaylorBAY1-33-4<0.1%
T10UtahUTAH1-34-3<0.1%
T10UCFUCF1-33-4<0.1%
T10ArizonaARIZ1-33-4<0.1%
T10HoustonHOU1-32-5-
16Oklahoma StOKST0-43-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big XII CCG Matchups

141.0%
BYUBYU
vs
ISUIowa St
224.4%
BYUBYU
vs
KSUKansas St
317.0%
Iowa StISU
vs
KSUKansas St
43.1%
ColoradoCOLO
vs
ISUIowa St
52.4%
Iowa StISU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
61.9%
ColoradoCOLO
vs
KSUKansas St
71.8%
CincinnatiCIN
vs
ISUIowa St
81.6%
BYUBYU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
91.5%
BYUBYU
vs
COLOColorado
101.1%
Kansas StKSU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
111.0%
BYUBYU
vs
CINCincinnati
120.7%
CincinnatiCIN
vs
KSUKansas St
130.4%
Iowa StISU
vs
TCUTCU
140.3%
Iowa StISU
vs
WVUWest Virginia
150.3%
Arizona StASU
vs
ISUIowa St

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big XII CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 69.9%
Game
BYUCCG OddsAway
BYUCCG OddsHome
Oklahoma StOKST@BaylorBAY
70.0%
(+0.1%)		69.9%
(-0.1%)
Texas TechTTU@TCUTCU
68.5%
(-1.4%)		71.2%
(+1.2%)
West VirginiaWVU@ArizonaARIZ
69.5%
(-0.4%)		70.2%
(+0.3%)
KansasKU@Kansas StKSU
75.9%
(+6.0%)		68.3%
(-1.7%)
UtahUTAH@HoustonHOU
69.8%
(-0.1%)		70.2%
(+0.3%)
BYUBYU@UCFUCF
81.4%
(+11.5%)		48.8%
(-21.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@ColoradoCOLO
70.5%
(+0.6%)		69.5%
(-0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for BYU

Oklahoma StOklahoma StateTCUTCUWest VirginiaWest VirginiaKansasKansasHoustonHoustonBYUBYUColoradoColorado

CCG: 92.8% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for BYU

BYUBYU

CCG: 81.4% • Scenario: 64.8%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-4Overall
BYUBYU100%99.8%66.5%5.1%-69.9%
Iowa StISU100%90.0%45.5%3.5%-66.5%
Kansas StKSU-99.4%43.9%5.2%<0.1%45.6%
ColoradoCOLO-64.4%15.6%0.8%-6.8%
Texas TechTTU-86.6%30.6%1.8%-5.3%
CincinnatiCIN-99.7%51.7%3.8%-3.8%
TCUTCU--22.3%1.0%-0.8%
West VirginiaWVU--14.3%1.3%-0.6%
Arizona StASU--67.5%2.3%-0.5%
KansasKU---17.5%-0.1%
BaylorBAY---1.3%-<0.1%
UtahUTAH---2.8%-<0.1%
UCFUCF---3.5%-<0.1%
ArizonaARIZ---0.5%-<0.1%
HoustonHOU---11.1%--
Oklahoma StOKST------

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIIFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Iowa StISU(4-0)17.7%38.4%30.4%11.3%2.0%0.1%----7.6
BYUBYU(4-0)12.8%33.7%34.1%15.8%3.4%0.2%----7.4
Kansas StKSU(3-1)-24.4%45.6%24.0%5.3%0.6%<0.1%---6.9
ColoradoCOLO(3-1)-4.9%21.3%34.7%27.2%10.4%1.5%---5.8
Texas TechTTU(3-1)-1.4%11.7%29.6%34.5%18.8%4.0%---5.3
CincinnatiCIN(3-1)-0.4%4.9%22.0%38.7%27.3%6.7%---4.9
TCUTCU(2-2)--2.9%15.4%32.1%31.8%15.0%2.7%--4.5
West VirginiaWVU(2-2)--2.6%14.4%31.2%32.5%16.3%3.0%--4.5
Arizona StASU(2-2)--0.5%6.0%22.5%36.6%27.1%7.3%--3.9
BaylorBAY(1-3)---5.5%22.5%35.4%26.0%9.3%1.2%-3.9
ArizonaARIZ(1-3)---5.1%22.1%35.7%26.8%9.3%1.1%-3.8
UtahUTAH(1-3)---2.2%13.4%31.3%33.5%16.7%2.9%-3.4
UCFUCF(1-3)---1.4%9.6%25.9%34.8%22.6%5.7%-3.2
KansasKU(1-3)---0.8%7.2%23.8%36.2%25.2%6.7%-3.0
Oklahoma StOKST(0-4)----1.0%8.0%24.3%35.1%25.0%6.7%2.0
HoustonHOU(1-3)---<0.1%0.4%3.9%18.8%41.9%35.0%-1.9

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com