Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W19-13 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-14 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:15% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 99.7% |
| 7-2 | 4.9% | 51.7% |
| 6-3 | 22.0% | 3.8% |
| 5-4 | 38.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8% (+0.0%) | 3.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.4% (-0.4%) | 4.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.0%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (+0.9%) | 3.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.0%) | 3.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.9%) | 5.5% (+1.7%) | |
| 7.9% (+4.1%) | 1.2% (-2.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
TCU
Arizona
Kansas
Utah
UCFCincinnatiCCG: 21.2% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 7.9% • Scenario: 38.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.7%
0.4%Any 1 loss
51.7%
5.0%
84.7%
0.3%79.7%
0.2%
69.5%
0.6%
55.9%
1.8%
35.4%
2.1%Any 2 losses
3.8%
22.0%11.4%
0.1%10.6%
0.4%9.0%
1.1%8.0%
1.1%7.3%
0.3%5.4%
2.9%5.1%
1.3%3.6%
1.4%3.1%
3.4%1.8%
9.8%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20