Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 4.9% | 64.4% |
| 7-2 | 21.3% | 15.6% |
| 6-3 | 34.7% | 0.8% |
| 5-4 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.8% (+0.0%) | 6.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.0%) | 6.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.5%) | 7.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 10.9% (+4.1%) | 5.6% (-1.1%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.1%) | 6.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.9% (-1.9%) | 10.2% (+3.5%) | |
| 1.4% (-5.3%) | 10.1% (+3.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Kansas
Utah
UCFColoradoCCG: 25.1% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 61.5%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.4%
4.9%Any 1 loss
15.6%
21.3%23.1%
2.1%17.3%
6.0%
15.7%
3.1%13.2%
3.5%12.9%
6.6%Any 2 losses
1.0%
19.2%1.6%
1.5%1.4%
4.0%1.1%
1.4%0.9%
2.9%0.8%
2.6%0.8%
4.7%0.8%
2.1%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20