Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W22-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L10-23 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L19-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L7-13 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:41% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:30% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 5-4 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 33.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
TCU
Arizona
KansasUtah
UCF
ColoradoCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahUCFCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 26.2%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
2.8%
2.2%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20