Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-48 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L13-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L13-19 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L35-38 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:55% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:41% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 5-4 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Arizona
Kansas
HoustonUCF
CincinnatiCCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 35.2%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.5%
1.4%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20