TCUHorned Frogs

4-3 T7th (2-2) in B12

Data from 2024-10-20 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@StanfordSTAN	W34-27
2	9/07	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W45-0
3	9/14	vsUCFUCF	L34-35
4	9/21	@SMUSMU	L42-66
5	9/28	vsKansasKU(N)	W38-27
6	10/04	vsHoustonHOU	L19-30
8	10/19	@UtahUTAH	W13-7
9	10/26	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:53%
10	11/02	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:39%
11	11/09	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:63%
13	11/23	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:58%
14	11/30	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:38%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	2.9%	22.3%
6-3	15.4%	1.0%
5-4	32.1%	0%
4-5	31.8%	0%
3-6	15.0%	0%
2-7	2.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.4%

25.3%

21.5%

2.5%

1.3%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Oklahoma StateOKST@BaylorBAY	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)
Texas TechTTU@TCUTCU	0.1% (-0.7%)	1.5% (+0.7%)
West VirginiaWVU@ArizonaARIZ	0.8% (-0.0%)	0.8% (+0.0%)
KansasKU@Kansas StateKSU	1.9% (+1.1%)	0.5% (-0.3%)
UtahUTAH@HoustonHOU	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)
BYUBYU@UCFUCF	0.6% (-0.2%)	1.1% (+0.4%)
CincinnatiCIN@ColoradoCOLO	0.8% (+0.0%)	0.8% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Oklahoma State

TCU

Arizona

Kansas

Houston

UCF

Cincinnati

CCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

TCU

CCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 53.3%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

22.3%

2.9%

Any 1 loss

1.0%

15.4%

1.3%

2.2%

1.3%

1.8%

1.2%

4.4%

1.0%

2.5%

0.6%

4.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com