Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:50% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:17% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:23% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:12% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 62.6% |
| 7-2 | 3.3% | 7.0% |
| 6-3 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
63.6%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
80.0%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%
70.3%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
61.8%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%
38.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
13.3%
1.4%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.3%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%Any 3 losses
9.1%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.2%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
11.6%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22