Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:51% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:97% | |
| 4 | 9/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:41% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:13% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 88.3% |
| 7-2 | 5.3% | 19.3% |
| 6-3 | 15.9% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
89.5%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.3%
<0.1%
93.5%
<0.1%
92.7%
<0.1%
90.9%
<0.1%
84.0%
0.2%
63.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
30.7%
2.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
0.2%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.7%
0.2%18.2%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.4%
0.5%12.3%
0.3%Any 3 losses
19.1%
2.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.1%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%18.4%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%15.1%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%12.8%
0.3%11.6%
0.6%8.3%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
10.8%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22