Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:96% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:94% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:94% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:67% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 10.4% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 31.8% | 46.4% |
| 7-2 | 33.7% | 3.7% |
| 6-3 | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.0%Any 1 loss
85.8%
11.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.9%
8.4%
56.0%
0.3%
53.8%
0.3%
53.8%
0.2%
51.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
49.1%
<0.1%
47.5%
<0.1%
41.5%
1.5%
35.3%
0.5%Any 2 losses
43.7%
30.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%55.0%
0.5%54.7%
0.5%54.4%
0.5%54.3%
2.5%54.2%
1.9%53.7%
0.5%53.5%
2.5%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%43.5%
13.0%40.3%
4.2%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.1%
0.5%3.0%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.7%
0.7%Any 3 losses
7.3%
30.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%55.7%
0.1%54.7%
0.1%52.4%
0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
0.5%47.2%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%41.9%
0.2%40.1%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
0.5%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
0.5%8.2%
0.2%7.5%
0.7%7.4%
0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
0.1%5.7%
0.9%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
1.2%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
2.8%3.9%
0.3%3.7%
0.8%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.7%3.5%
0.7%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.7%3.2%
3.9%3.2%
3.8%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
<0.1%2.1%
1.2%1.4%
6.5%Any 4 losses
6.8%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22