Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:69% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:91% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:20% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:19% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:42% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:12% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:12% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 90.9% |
| 7-2 | 0.5% | 23.0% |
| 6-3 | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 11.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 22.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
49.3%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
26.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
7.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22