Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:97% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:91% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:96% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:18% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:83% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 14.4% | 90.1% |
| 7-2 | 30.2% | 21.2% |
| 6-3 | 29.7% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.7%Any 1 loss
90.4%
12.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.1%
0.8%
95.8%
0.3%
95.3%
0.9%
95.2%
0.3%
95.1%
0.5%
90.9%
0.4%
88.3%
7.7%
88.3%
0.2%
87.8%
1.1%Any 2 losses
26.8%
27.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.7%
0.8%87.5%
0.4%85.4%
0.3%81.0%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%52.5%
0.1%46.7%
0.3%45.6%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.8%
0.1%42.5%
0.1%42.0%
0.1%41.9%
0.1%41.4%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%32.5%
0.4%30.5%
0.2%30.5%
0.3%30.4%
0.1%29.2%
0.1%29.0%
0.4%26.5%
0.2%25.2%
1.5%24.9%
0.2%24.2%
0.5%23.9%
0.8%22.5%
3.9%22.2%
1.4%21.2%
2.4%20.5%
1.1%18.4%
0.1%17.9%
4.1%17.5%
0.6%14.3%
<0.1%11.4%
5.1%Any 3 losses
18.1%
6.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.5%
0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
0.2%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
0.2%22.1%
0.2%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.5%
0.4%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.3%17.9%
<0.1%17.2%
0.2%17.2%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
0.5%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.6%13.3%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
13.8%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22