Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:95% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:59% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:96% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:75% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:33% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 15.4% | 54.6% |
| 7-2 | 32.0% | 3.9% |
| 6-3 | 29.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.5%Any 1 loss
60.1%
9.4%
100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
74.4%
0.4%
73.5%
0.4%
73.0%
0.5%
72.2%
<0.1%
71.3%
0.4%
69.8%
0.3%
66.5%
0.2%
54.2%
2.9%
44.6%
3.3%Any 2 losses
18.0%
23.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.5%
0.3%76.2%
<0.1%75.2%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
0.2%72.7%
0.3%71.7%
<0.1%70.6%
0.1%67.6%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%52.7%
2.0%52.0%
0.1%48.1%
0.2%44.0%
0.1%43.7%
2.3%33.3%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.0%
0.9%5.9%
0.3%5.5%
0.9%4.8%
0.7%4.2%
0.8%4.1%
1.1%4.0%
0.5%3.9%
0.9%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
1.0%3.6%
0.8%3.3%
0.1%2.2%
0.5%2.1%
0.4%1.4%
6.8%Any 3 losses
5.7%
13.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.8%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
0.6%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
0.7%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.5%4.5%
<0.1%4.1%
0.5%3.9%
0.6%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.7%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
0.5%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.1%
4.7%1.0%
0.4%Any 4 losses
4.4%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.5%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22