Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:85% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:54% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:22% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:47% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 65.0% |
| 7-2 | 5.2% | 5.6% |
| 6-3 | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 28.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
71.4%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.2%
<0.1%
82.3%
<0.1%
79.4%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
72.7%
<0.1%
68.7%
<0.1%
59.2%
0.1%Any 2 losses
14.6%
2.6%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.2%
0.5%4.1%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.5%
0.4%Any 3 losses
7.7%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
4.7%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22