Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:87% | |
| 2 | 9/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:34% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:56% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:57% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:20% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:40% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 33.0% |
| 7-2 | 2.1% | 3.6% |
| 6-3 | 8.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 18.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
39.4%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%
44.4%
<0.1%
40.7%
<0.1%
34.8%
<0.1%
33.3%
<0.1%
28.6%
<0.1%
25.0%
<0.1%
22.6%
<0.1%
10.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
7.9%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 3 losses
6.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
28.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22