SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-08-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  GeorgiaUGA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 77.2% | |
| T1 |  Ole MissMISS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 46.7% | |
| T1 |  TexasTEX | 0-0 | 0-0 | 25.7% | |
| T1 |  TennesseeTENN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16.1% | |
| T1 |  AlabamaALA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8.3% | |
| T1 |  South CarolinaSC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.6% | |
| T1 |  LSULSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.3% | |
| T1 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.5% | |
| T1 |  MissouriMIZ | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.0% | |
| T1 |  FloridaFLA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.5% | |
| T1 |  OklahomaOU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.4% | |
| T1 |  AuburnAUB | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.1% | |
| T1 |  ArkansasARK | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  VanderbiltVAN | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  KentuckyUK | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 77.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaUGA | 100% | 97.7% | 35.4% | 0.6% | 77.2% |
| Ole MissMISS | 99.9% | 82.8% | 18.9% | 0.3% | 46.7% |
| TexasTEX | 99.9% | 63.3% | 9.7% | <0.1% | 25.7% |
| TennesseeTENN | 99.7% | 64.8% | 9.7% | <0.1% | 16.1% |
| AlabamaALA | 100% | 86.5% | 23.3% | 0.3% | 8.3% |
| South CarolinaSC | 100% | 76.1% | 15.0% | <0.1% | 6.6% |
| LSULSU | 100% | 75.0% | 14.3% | <0.1% | 6.3% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 67.7% | 11.5% | <0.1% | 5.5% |
| MissouriMIZ | 100% | 51.8% | 5.4% | <0.1% | 3.0% |
| FloridaFLA | 100% | 95.5% | 39.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| OklahomaOU | 100% | 93.0% | 44.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| AuburnAUB | 100% | 75.5% | 10.7% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| ArkansasARK | 100% | 83.1% | 27.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| VanderbiltVAN | 100% | 66.7% | 21.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | 41.3% | 1.3% | <0.1% |
| Mississippi StateMSST | - | - | 37.5% | 1.8% | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaUGA(0-0) | 29.8% | 40.4% | 22.3% | 6.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9 |
| Ole MissMISS(0-0) | 9.7% | 36.8% | 34.3% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| TexasTEX(0-0) | 4.9% | 27.3% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| TennesseeTENN(0-0) | 2.7% | 15.9% | 31.7% | 29.8% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| South CarolinaSC(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.7% | 16.7% | 28.8% | 28.0% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| AlabamaALA(0-0) | 0.4% | 4.6% | 16.6% | 28.9% | 27.6% | 15.8% | 5.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| LSULSU(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.7% | 16.2% | 28.1% | 27.7% | 16.3% | 5.5% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Texas A&MTA&M(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 27.7% | 28.1% | 16.8% | 5.7% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| MissouriMIZ(0-0) | 0.5% | 3.6% | 12.7% | 24.2% | 28.5% | 20.0% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 4.2 |
| AuburnAUB(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 15.0% | 27.0% | 28.4% | 17.5% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 3.4 |
| FloridaFLA(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 11.4% | 25.6% | 31.9% | 21.0% | 6.3% | 0.6% | 3.2 |
| OklahomaOU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 21.4% | 30.0% | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 3.0 |
| ArkansasARK(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 32.2% | 27.9% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 2.8 |
| VanderbiltVAN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 9.3% | 23.9% | 33.6% | 24.1% | 6.7% | 2.1 |
| KentuckyUK(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 16.8% | 32.3% | 31.8% | 13.0% | 1.7 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 5.7% | 20.6% | 39.9% | 32.8% | 1.0 |
Data from 2025-08-22