Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:78% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:80% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:59% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.6% | 86.5% |
| 6-2 | 16.6% | 23.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.9% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
86.6%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%97.2%
0.3%97.0%
0.1%94.3%
0.2%93.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.2%
1.6%Any 2 losses
34.1%
10.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.8%
0.2%83.4%
0.4%82.7%
0.4%74.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%42.5%
0.1%41.7%
0.1%40.9%
<0.1%35.5%
0.1%34.0%
0.2%33.7%
<0.1%32.6%
0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%28.4%
0.2%27.6%
<0.1%26.7%
0.9%25.4%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%23.6%
0.3%23.3%
1.1%21.8%
1.0%21.1%
1.9%16.0%
1.5%13.8%
0.6%Any 3 losses
21.9%
7.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%79.7%
0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%30.6%
0.2%29.9%
0.2%29.5%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
0.1%26.1%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
0.3%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.6%
0.5%20.4%
<0.1%20.4%
0.5%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
0.4%17.5%
0.1%17.3%
0.3%16.8%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
0.4%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
0.2%10.8%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
12.5%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22