Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:48% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:65% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:37% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:30% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:10% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.7% | 75.5% |
| 6-2 | 4.8% | 10.7% |
| 5-3 | 15.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 17.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
75.6%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%
82.1%
<0.1%
79.2%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
54.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
24.7%
1.6%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%62.0%
0.1%60.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.1%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%6.5%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%Any 3 losses
15.7%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.9%
0.3%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
8.4%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22