Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-19 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L35-43 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-26 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 74.3% | 18.0% |
| 6-2 | 23.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.7% (-2.8%) | 40.4% (+27.0%) | |
| 13.9% (+0.4%) | 13.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 15.6% (+2.1%) | 12.8% (-0.7%) | |
| 0.2% (-13.3%) | 14.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 13.1% (-0.3%) | 13.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.0% (+5.5%) | 12.1% (-1.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Tennessee
AuburnOle Miss
Mississippi State
VanderbiltCCG: 53.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaOle MissCCG: 44.7% • Scenario: 8.4%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
18.0%
67.0%
18.3%
7.3%
0.6%
0.8%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26