Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-29 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W23-6 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W16-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W45-38 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 16.7% | 75.5% |
| 6-2 | 49.4% | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 11.9% (-0.8%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 12.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.1%) | 12.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.1% (+4.4%) | 12.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 12.7% (-0.0%) | 12.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-12.6%) | 15.8% (+3.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
South Carolina
ArkansasTexasCCG: 32.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 15.8% • Scenario: 80.4%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.5%
16.7%Any 1 loss
1.0%
5.8%1.7%
1.8%
0.7%
4.0%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26