Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
85.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L12-13 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W26-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W45-13 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W38-6 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 85.4% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 14.6% | 1.8% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 85.6% (-0.0%) | 87.9% (+2.2%) | |
| 86.5% (+0.8%) | 85.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 85.7% (+0.0%) | 85.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.7% (+0.0%) | 85.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 85.8% (+0.2%) | 85.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 86.2% (+0.5%) | 85.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 100.0% (+14.3%) | 1.8% (-83.9%) | |
| 85.7% (+0.1%) | 85.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.9% (+0.3%) | 85.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 86.0% (+0.4%) | 85.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 85.7% (+0.0%) | 85.5% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
85.4%
1.8%
14.6%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23