Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-20 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L15-37 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W42-28 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 24.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 75.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 24.6% (+0.0%) | 23.5% (-1.1%) | |
| 24.6% (-0.0%) | 24.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.6% (+0.0%) | 24.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.9% (+0.3%) | 24.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.7% (+0.1%) | 24.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.4% (-0.2%) | 24.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 24.7% (+0.1%) | 24.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 24.6% (-0.0%) | 24.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.8% (+0.2%) | 24.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.7% (+0.1%) | 24.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-24.6%) | 100.0% (+75.4%) |
Data from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
24.6%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23