Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W40-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:29% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:22% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 98.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.8% | 67.8% |
| 6-3 | 4.3% | 7.1% |
| 5-4 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.3%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 65.9%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
68.7%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.5%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
7.3%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07