Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 51.5% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 2-0 | 50.4% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 0-2 | 23.4% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 1-1 | 23.0% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 1-1 | 12.6% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11.0% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10.7% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 2-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3.2% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.4% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.9% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.6% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 51.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% (-0.1%) | 51.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 51.2% (-0.3%) | 51.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.1% (-0.4%) | 51.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.4% (-0.1%) | 51.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.4% (-0.0%) | 51.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.4% (-0.1%) | 51.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.1% (-0.4%) | 51.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.1% (-0.4%) | 51.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 51.7% (+0.3%) | 51.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 51.5% (+0.0%) | 51.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.6% (+0.1%) | 51.2% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 81.9% | 54.5% | 22.0% | 5.0% | <0.1% | 51.5% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 81.4% | 54.3% | 25.3% | 4.5% | - | 50.4% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 74.9% | 45.8% | 19.1% | 3.5% | - | 23.4% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 52.3% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% | - | 23.0% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 58.1% | 24.0% | 4.7% | 0.5% | - | 12.6% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 59.1% | 21.4% | 5.7% | 0.9% | - | 11.0% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 74.4% | 44.6% | 15.5% | 1.8% | - | 10.7% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 55.4% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | - | 9.8% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 58.1% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 0.2% | - | 3.2% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 68.3% | 29.5% | 7.8% | 1.0% | - | 2.4% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 62.9% | 22.4% | 6.1% | 0.8% | - | 0.9% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 76.5% | 38.4% | 10.1% | 1.2% | - | 0.6% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | 100% | 46.6% | 17.3% | 3.9% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 33.3% | 15.2% | 1.8% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 7.4% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 22.7% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 7.1% | 23.5% | 32.7% | 23.5% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 5.5% | 23.1% | 34.3% | 24.9% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | 1.1% | 8.5% | 23.0% | 31.7% | 23.4% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 1.0% | 7.9% | 22.3% | 31.2% | 24.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 1.3% | 8.3% | 20.9% | 29.1% | 24.2% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 30.2% | 25.8% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.3% | 10.1% | 23.6% | 31.3% | 22.4% | 8.5% | 1.4% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.7% | 8.9% | 23.2% | 31.9% | 23.5% | 9.0% | 1.6% | <0.1% | 4.0 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.6% | 24.5% | 31.2% | 21.3% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 3.2 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 18.2% | 29.6% | 27.9% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2.7 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.6% | 26.1% | 33.3% | 20.8% | 4.7% | 2.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 16.1% | 30.4% | 32.7% | 14.5% | 1.7 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 22.6% | 40.7% | 28.6% | 1.1 |
Data from 2025-09-07