Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:60% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.4% | 95.2% |
| 6-2 | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| 5-3 | 23.1% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.4% (+0.3%) | 42.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.1% (+0.0%) | 42.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.9% (-0.3%) | 45.4% (+3.3%) | |
| 42.1% (+0.0%) | 42.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (+0.3%) | 42.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 41.9% (-0.2%) | 42.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.2% (+0.1%) | 42.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 41.8% (-0.3%) | 42.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.9% (-0.2%) | 42.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.1% (+0.0%) | 42.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.2% (+0.1%) | 42.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.9% (-0.2%) | 42.5% (+0.3%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.9%Any 1 loss
96.6%
12.8%
100.0%
1.7%
100.0%
1.9%
99.2%
0.5%
98.9%
<0.1%
98.7%
0.8%
98.4%
0.8%
98.2%
1.5%
94.4%
1.5%
93.3%
2.6%
91.7%
1.4%Any 2 losses
65.6%
24.9%100.0%
1.2%99.4%
0.5%99.3%
0.3%99.1%
0.3%99.1%
0.5%99.0%
0.5%98.6%
0.5%97.9%
0.9%97.5%
0.9%95.6%
<0.1%95.1%
1.0%94.6%
1.0%93.9%
0.9%93.0%
0.9%92.5%
<0.1%91.7%
1.6%91.5%
1.7%61.5%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
0.2%55.8%
0.4%53.1%
0.4%52.4%
0.3%44.7%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.0%
0.4%40.5%
0.3%39.9%
0.4%39.1%
0.8%37.6%
0.3%37.2%
0.7%37.0%
0.8%36.8%
0.4%36.4%
0.4%35.4%
0.7%35.4%
0.4%32.7%
1.3%29.0%
<0.1%22.9%
0.8%21.5%
1.4%18.5%
1.3%Any 3 losses
40.7%
21.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.4%98.1%
0.1%97.9%
0.3%97.6%
0.6%94.7%
0.6%93.2%
0.6%92.0%
1.0%80.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.1%
0.1%58.1%
0.3%57.6%
0.2%57.3%
0.2%55.4%
<0.1%54.2%
0.2%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
0.2%53.4%
0.1%52.3%
<0.1%50.7%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.5%
0.2%45.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.3%
0.2%41.2%
0.5%40.9%
0.3%40.8%
0.2%40.8%
0.2%40.0%
0.5%39.6%
0.2%38.7%
0.3%38.5%
0.3%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
0.3%37.6%
0.1%36.6%
0.5%36.1%
0.2%35.6%
0.3%35.2%
0.8%35.1%
0.3%34.5%
0.5%34.4%
0.5%33.6%
0.5%33.3%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
0.8%30.8%
0.4%29.1%
0.3%23.3%
0.5%23.2%
0.5%22.8%
0.9%20.2%
0.8%20.0%
0.9%18.1%
0.8%16.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
25.8%
6.3%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.0%
0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%46.4%
0.2%44.0%
0.2%42.9%
0.2%42.5%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.2%
0.2%38.0%
0.1%38.0%
0.1%37.6%
0.3%37.2%
0.3%36.4%
<0.1%34.4%
0.3%34.1%
0.3%32.3%
0.2%29.1%
0.5%24.5%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%18.3%
0.5%18.3%
0.6%16.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07