ULM

UL MonroeWarhawks

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

ULMSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsSt. Francis (PA)SFPA
W29-0
29/06
@AlabamaALA
L0-73
49/20
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:49%
59/27
vsArkansas StARST
Win prob:49%
610/04
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:27%
710/11
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:45%
810/18
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:31%
910/25
@Southern MissUSM
Win prob:66%
1011/01
vsOld DominionODU
Win prob:30%
1211/15
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:22%
1311/22
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:9%
1411/29
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:20%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
100.0%
7-1
0.1%
62.9%
6-2
1.3%
22.4%
5-3
6.6%
6.1%
4-4
18.2%
0.8%
3-5
29.6%
0%
2-6
27.9%
0%
1-7
13.6%
0%
0-8
2.6%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely ULM CCG Opponents

if ULM makes the CCG

James MadisonJames Madison
51.1%
MarshallMarshall
23.9%
Old DominionOld Dominion
10.9%
App StateAppalachian St
10.9%
Georgia SouthernGa Southern
3.3%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMThis Week's Impact

Game
ULMCCG OddsAway
ULMCCG OddsHome
Iowa StISU@Arkansas StARST
0.9%
(-0.0%)		1.0%
(+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(-0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Georgia StGAST
1.0%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ
0.9%
(-0.1%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Jacksonville StJXST@Ga SouthernGASO
1.0%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@TroyTROY
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Texas StTXST@Arizona StASU
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Eastern KentuckyEKU@MarshallMRSH
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Appalachian StAPP@Southern MissUSM
0.9%
(-0.0%)		1.0%
(+0.1%)
East CarolinaECU@Coastal CarCCU
0.9%
(-0.0%)		1.0%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
ULM CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
44.4%
<0.1%
Coastal Car
100.0%
<0.1%
Old Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
South Alabama
50.0%
<0.1%
Texas St
44.4%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
34.8%
0.2%
Arkansas StNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal Car
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
TroyUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana
75.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaUTEP
75.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld Dominion
66.7%
<0.1%
Old DominionTroy
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern Miss
50.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas St
44.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionTexas St
41.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouth Alabama
33.3%
<0.1%
Texas StUTEP
30.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth Alabama
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroy
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTexas St
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTexas St
6.3%
<0.1%
Texas StTroy
4.5%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
26.5%
0.9%
LouisianaNorthwesternUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StNorthwesternUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StNorthwesternOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern MissUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouthern MissUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionTroyUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternSouth Alabama
85.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternOld Dominion
84.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaOld Dominion
83.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionUTEP
80.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaUTEP
75.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionTroy
71.4%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionSouth Alabama
66.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTroyUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouth Alabama
62.5%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionTroy
57.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionSouthern Miss
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern MissTroy
50.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTroyUTEP
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouthern Miss
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas StUTEP
47.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionTexas St
39.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionTexas St
37.9%
<0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern MissUTEP
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternSouthern Miss
33.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
33.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StNorthwesternSouth Alabama
33.3%
<0.1%
Old DominionTexas StUTEP
31.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisiana
28.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternTexas St
28.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouth AlabamaUTEP
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaTroy
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternTroy
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTexas StUTEP
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouth Alabama
23.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StNorthwesternTroy
22.2%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroyUTEP
22.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaUTEP
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternTroy
16.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionTroy
15.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaOld Dominion
14.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaNorthwestern
12.5%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern MissTexas St
11.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternSouth Alabama
6.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StNorthwesternTexas St
6.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionTexas St
5.4%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTexas StUTEP
5.3%
<0.1%
Texas StTroyUTEP
5.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas StTroy
5.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTexas StUTEP
4.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaTexas St
3.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouth AlabamaTexas St
2.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternTexas St
2.6%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaTexas St
2.2%
<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com