MarshallThundering Herd

0-2 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

23.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@GeorgiaUGA	L7-45
2	9/06	vsMissouri StateMOST	L20-21
3	9/13	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	Win prob:90%
4	9/20	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:80%
5	9/27	@LouisianaUL	Win prob:50%
7	10/11	vsOld DominionODU	Win prob:63%
8	10/18	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:43%
10	10/30	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:76%
11	11/08	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:42%
12	11/15	@Georgia StateGAST	Win prob:79%
13	11/22	@App StateAPP	Win prob:50%
14	11/29	vsGeorgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:75%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.3%	100.0%
7-1	8.3%	74.9%
6-2	20.9%	45.8%
5-3	29.1%	19.1%
4-4	24.2%	3.5%
3-5	12.2%	0%
2-6	3.4%	0%
1-7	0.5%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.1%

23.4%

12.2%

10.9%

2.4%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Iowa StateISU@Arkansas StateARST	23.4% (-0.0%)	23.5% (+0.1%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB	23.3% (-0.1%)	23.5% (+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Georgia StateGAST	23.5% (+0.1%)	23.4% (-0.0%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ	23.6% (+0.1%)	23.4% (-0.0%)
Jacksonville StateJXST@Georgia SouthernGASO	23.4% (-0.0%)	23.5% (+0.1%)
MemphisMEM@TroyTROY	23.5% (+0.1%)	23.2% (-0.2%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT	23.4% (+0.0%)	23.4% (+0.0%)
Texas StateTXST@Arizona StateASU	23.7% (+0.2%)	23.3% (-0.1%)
Eastern KentuckyEKU@MarshallMRSH	23.7% (+0.3%)	23.4% (-0.0%)
App StateAPP@Southern MissUSM	23.5% (+0.1%)	23.1% (-0.4%)
East CarolinaECU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	23.4% (-0.0%)	23.5% (+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.9%

Any 1 loss

75.9%

6.2%

100.0%

0.9%

100.0%

1.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.8%

0.3%

98.7%

0.2%

88.1%

0.3%

77.8%

0.9%

64.5%

0.6%

19.7%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

49.6%

17.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

1.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.6%

0.2%

99.3%

0.3%

99.1%

0.3%

98.7%

<0.1%

98.5%

0.4%

97.6%

<0.1%

96.7%

<0.1%

89.7%

0.3%

88.6%

<0.1%

87.0%

0.4%

81.5%

1.2%

80.4%

0.9%

78.8%

0.2%

75.9%

0.1%

74.9%

0.5%

70.5%

0.7%

64.6%

0.2%

61.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

25.6%

<0.1%

22.3%

1.6%

22.3%

1.4%

21.9%

0.3%

21.5%

0.1%

21.1%

0.2%

17.3%

0.3%

13.9%

0.3%

12.3%

0.3%

12.0%

0.1%

7.6%

0.2%

5.6%

0.3%

3.7%

0.5%

2.9%

0.4%

2.1%

0.4%

1.1%

1.2%

0.5%

0.8%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com