Troy

TroyTrojans

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

TroySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsNichollsNICH
W38-20
29/06
@ClemsonCLEM
L16-27
39/13
vsMemphisMEM
Win prob:40%
49/20
@BuffaloBUF
Win prob:52%
610/04
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:47%
710/11
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:24%
810/18
@ULMULM
Win prob:69%
910/25
vsLouisianaUL
Win prob:60%
1011/01
vsArkansas StARST
Win prob:75%
1211/13
@Old DominionODU
Win prob:42%
1311/22
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:85%
1411/29
@Southern MissUSM
Win prob:86%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
1.0%
100.0%
7-1
7.9%
58.1%
6-2
22.3%
24.0%
5-3
31.2%
4.7%
4-4
24.0%
0.5%
3-5
10.6%
0%
2-6
2.7%
0%
1-7
0.3%
0%
0-8
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Troy CCG Opponents

if Troy makes the CCG

James MadisonJames Madison
51.7%
MarshallMarshall
22.8%
Old DominionOld Dominion
12.1%
App StateAppalachian St
10.2%
Georgia SouthernGa Southern
3.2%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyThis Week's Impact

Game
TroyCCG OddsAway
TroyCCG OddsHome
Iowa StISU@Arkansas StARST
12.5%
(-0.0%)		12.7%
(+0.1%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Georgia StGAST
12.1%
(-0.5%)		12.6%
(+0.1%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ
12.4%
(-0.1%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
Jacksonville StJXST@Ga SouthernGASO
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.7%
(+0.2%)
MemphisMEM@TroyTROY
12.6%
(+0.0%)		12.5%
(-0.0%)
Old DominionODU@Virginia TechVT
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
Texas StTXST@Arizona StASU
12.6%
(+0.0%)		12.6%
(-0.0%)
Eastern KentuckyEKU@MarshallMRSH
12.8%
(+0.2%)		12.5%
(-0.0%)
Appalachian StAPP@Southern MissUSM
12.6%
(+0.0%)		12.6%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Coastal CarCCU
12.7%
(+0.1%)		12.3%
(-0.3%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Troy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%
Any 1 loss
66.4%
2.2%
Memphis
100.0%
0.3%
Old Dominion
100.0%
0.3%
Buffalo
100.0%
0.2%
Southern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
94.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas St
93.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana
72.9%
0.2%
South Alabama
44.7%
0.3%
Texas St
26.1%
0.7%
Any 2 losses
46.6%
7.8%
BuffaloOld Dominion
100.0%
0.3%
MemphisOld Dominion
100.0%
0.5%
BuffaloMemphis
100.0%
0.3%
Georgia StOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGeorgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionULM
99.3%
0.1%
MemphisULM
97.2%
0.1%
Arkansas StOld Dominion
92.9%
0.1%
Arkansas StBuffalo
92.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMemphis
92.0%
0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana
76.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloLouisiana
76.6%
0.1%
LouisianaOld Dominion
75.3%
0.2%
LouisianaMemphis
69.7%
0.2%
Southern MissULM
53.3%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
42.5%
0.4%
BuffaloSouth Alabama
42.2%
0.3%
MemphisSouth Alabama
42.0%
0.4%
Georgia StSouth Alabama
38.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StTexas St
32.0%
0.1%
LouisianaSouthern Miss
29.2%
<0.1%
Old DominionTexas St
28.9%
1.0%
BuffaloTexas St
27.5%
0.6%
MemphisTexas St
26.4%
1.0%
Arkansas StULM
14.8%
<0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern Miss
12.5%
<0.1%
Southern MissTexas St
11.0%
0.1%
LouisianaULM
8.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana
7.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouthern Miss
7.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth Alabama
6.8%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
5.7%
0.1%
Texas StULM
5.6%
0.3%
Arkansas StTexas St
1.6%
0.3%
LouisianaTexas St
1.3%
0.5%
Any 3 losses
27.8%
15.8%
BuffaloMemphisOld Dominion
100.0%
0.4%
BuffaloGeorgia StOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMemphisSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia StMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StMemphisOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGeorgia StMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StMemphisSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern MissULM
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia StSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMemphisULM
97.9%
0.1%
BuffaloOld DominionULM
97.4%
0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionULM
97.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StMemphisULM
96.7%
<0.1%
MemphisOld DominionULM
96.4%
0.2%
Arkansas StGeorgia StOld Dominion
93.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBuffaloMemphis
92.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StMemphisOld Dominion
91.7%
0.2%
Arkansas StBuffaloGeorgia St
91.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBuffaloOld Dominion
91.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia StULM
83.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloLouisianaOld Dominion
76.1%
0.2%
Georgia StLouisianaOld Dominion
72.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaMemphis
72.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia StLouisiana
72.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisOld Dominion
71.3%
0.3%
BuffaloLouisianaMemphis
69.5%
0.2%
Arkansas StGeorgia StSouthern Miss
66.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouthern MissULM
55.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionSouth Alabama
49.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloMemphisSouth Alabama
47.0%
0.4%
Arkansas StMemphisSouthern Miss
46.7%
<0.1%
MemphisOld DominionSouth Alabama
46.3%
0.6%
Georgia StMemphisSouth Alabama
46.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloOld DominionSouth Alabama
44.9%
0.3%
BuffaloGeorgia StSouth Alabama
40.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloGeorgia StTexas St
36.4%
0.1%
Arkansas StBuffaloULM
35.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionSouthern Miss
34.8%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern MissULM
32.4%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouthern MissULM
31.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloMemphisTexas St
30.2%
1.0%
Arkansas StBuffaloSouthern Miss
30.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StMemphisTexas St
29.4%
0.2%
MemphisOld DominionTexas St
28.3%
1.5%
BuffaloOld DominionTexas St
27.7%
0.9%
Georgia StOld DominionTexas St
25.6%
0.2%
Arkansas StOld DominionULM
25.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGeorgia StLouisiana
25.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLouisianaSouthern Miss
22.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGeorgia StULM
22.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern MissTexas St
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouthern Miss
18.9%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
18.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloLouisianaULM
17.3%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
17.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionULM
16.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisULM
15.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
14.6%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
14.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouthern Miss
14.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMemphisULM
13.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGeorgia StSouth Alabama
12.5%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth AlabamaULM
12.4%
0.2%
Arkansas StBuffaloSouth Alabama
10.3%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern MissTexas St
10.0%
0.2%
Arkansas StLouisianaOld Dominion
8.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth AlabamaULM
8.7%
0.1%
Arkansas StBuffaloLouisiana
7.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StTexas StULM
7.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloTexas StULM
6.9%
0.3%
Arkansas StMemphisSouth Alabama
6.9%
0.1%
Old DominionSouthern MissTexas St
6.8%
0.2%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaULM
6.7%
0.1%
MemphisTexas StULM
5.0%
0.5%
Old DominionTexas StULM
4.8%
0.5%
BuffaloSouthern MissTexas St
4.5%
0.1%
Arkansas StBuffaloTexas St
4.5%
0.2%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaULM
3.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMemphis
3.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouth Alabama
3.1%
0.2%
BuffaloLouisianaSouth Alabama
3.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionTexas St
2.8%
0.4%
Arkansas StGeorgia StTexas St
2.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouth Alabama
2.1%
0.2%
Arkansas StMemphisTexas St
1.7%
0.4%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaTexas St
1.4%
0.1%
LouisianaMemphisTexas St
1.2%
0.7%
BuffaloLouisianaTexas St
1.2%
0.4%
Georgia StLouisianaTexas St
1.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionTexas St
0.9%
0.7%
Arkansas StOld DominionSouth Alabama
0.9%
0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaTexas St
0.7%
1.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com