Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-14
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-0 | 2-1 | 10.4% | |
| T2 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 3-0 | 63.6% | |
| T2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 1-1 | 56.4% | |
| T2 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 3-1 | 35.6% | |
| T2 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 13.9% | |
| T2 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 2-1 | 6.6% | |
| T2 |  Air ForceAF | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5.7% | |
| T2 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3.5% | |
| T2 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1.9% | |
| T2 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1.4% | |
| T2 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.6% | |
| T2 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0.5% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 63.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9% (+0.3%) | 63.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 63.6% (+0.1%) | 63.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 63.5% (-0.1%) | 63.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.7% (-0.9%) | 63.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 63.7% (+0.2%) | 63.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 61.9% (-1.7%) | 70.0% (+6.4%) | |
| 62.1% (-1.5%) | 66.3% (+2.7%) | |
| 64.0% (+0.4%) | 63.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.7% (-0.9%) | 63.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSASan Diego State
IdahoHawai'iWyoming
McNeeseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 70.0% • Scenario: 21.0%
Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 95.6% | 54.0% | 4.1% | 63.6% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.2% | 65.6% | 7.4% | 56.4% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 94.4% | 46.0% | 2.8% | 35.6% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 83.1% | 26.3% | 0.7% | 13.9% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.4% | 60.1% | 5.3% | 10.4% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 92.9% | 42.5% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| Air ForceAF | - | 99.7% | 66.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 98.3% | 57.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 98.4% | 55.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 94.7% | 40.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 100% | 74.3% | 11.3% | 0.6% |
| Hawai'iHAW | 100% | 100% | 64.3% | 7.5% | 0.5% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 13.2% | 33.9% | 32.1% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 8.1% | 25.7% | 32.2% | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 3.7% | 17.8% | 31.3% | 27.8% | 14.3% | 4.4% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.2% | 20.9% | 28.9% | 23.8% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-0) | 0.2% | 2.3% | 10.9% | 26.0% | 32.2% | 21.1% | 6.5% | 0.8% | - | 4.2 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 9.5% | 21.8% | 29.4% | 23.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| Air ForceAF(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 5.9% | 19.5% | 31.6% | 27.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 3.7 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 13.3% | 25.7% | 29.1% | 19.6% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 3.3 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 9.8% | 23.4% | 31.2% | 23.2% | 8.7% | 1.3% | 3.1 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 9.2% | 21.1% | 29.1% | 24.3% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 2.9 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 10.4% | 23.9% | 32.3% | 23.4% | 6.9% | 2.2 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 32.6% | 25.1% | 7.6% | 2.1 |
Data from 2025-09-14